Bitcoin (BTC) is not a hedge against “every” global meltdown but will ultimately protect its users from central banks, governments and fiat money printing.
That was the consensus building among cryptocurrency supporters on March 10, as traders awaited the next stage of worldwide panic — this had given much of the economy its worst day since the 2008 financial crisis.
BTC increasingly “uncorrelated”
On Monday, currency markets and stocks led the losses, which were later joined by markets such as United States government bond yields.
In a move unprecedented in history, the entire U.S. bond yield curve dropped below 1% — signaling intense concern from traders over a global recession, an oil price war and, of course, coronavirus.
Bitcoin 1-year chart versus U.S. 10-year bond yields. Source: Skew Markets
At the same time, Bitcoin shed around 15% overnight, volatility which at press time had nonetheless subsided.
Noting historical behavior, Hunter Horsely, CEO of BitWise, said that BTC was performing much better than before versus the S&P 500 in particular.
“S&P is -7.6% today. Based on historical volatility, a -7.6% move in S&P is == to -41% in BTC,” he wrote on Twitter.
“Yet in the last 24 hrs BTC is only -5%. And only -0.5% since midnight today. That’s uncorrelated.”
A hedge against money printing
AngelList CEO Naval Ravikant meanwhile suggested that investors zoom out from recent price adjustments.
“At the moment, Bitcoin is not a general hedge against every black swan and still behaves like a ‘risk on” trade,’ he responded to criticism of the cryptocurrency’s performance.
“But long term, Bitcoin is a hedge against central banks printing money, which is inevitable as a reaction to the virus.”
Bitcoin has traditionally favored investors with a low time preference — those who understand that saving in sound money guarantees more wealth in the future versus spending and borrowing.