The narrative of ETH as the building blocks of crypto finance has come to fruition over the last two years. Bitcoin maximalists and proponents of competitors like EOS, TRON, and Cardano continuously criticize Ethereum and claim the success of DeFi is short term and will pop like the ICO bubble. These critics can now put their money where their mouth is with Guesser’s new prediction market on Augur, allowing users to bet for or against the amount of collateral locked in DeFi, August 21, 2019.
Predicting the Trend
From only a few thousand dollars locked in DeFi in mid-2017 to over $650 million in June 2019, Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem has grown exponentially in less than two years.
But as always, competition in the industry creates two sides to the story. For those who believe in Ethereum, the growth of DeFi marks the platform finally fulfilling the vision set in 2014; for BTC maximalists and other platform users, it’s a bubble that cannot sustain or increase due to throughput constraints.
Guesser is giving both sides the opportunity to put their words into action with their Total Value Locked (TVL) prediction market on a weekly basis (soon to launch longer duration markets).
Those who believe in the ecosystem can bet on TVL increasing while those who believe it will decrease can take the other side of the bet. All you need is some ETH and the MetaMask extension for your browser.
Will Prediction Markets Ever Take Off?
Prediction markets themselves have been vastly underutilized after the degree of hype seen during the launch of Augur. With a market cap of $107 million, Augur only has an about $3.5 million worth of liquidity on their prediction market.
Centralized betting is more efficient, and the case for security can be argued. Betting agencies are bound by the law to keep their promises and any disputes can be taken up in a court of law.
With Augur your funds are locked in the escrow account and are secured for the most part. This issue is how resilient the smart contract is and whether both parties are capable of reading the conditions of the contract.
For prediction markets to take off, two essential developments need to come to space: on-chain arbitration and better UX and readability for smart contracts.